Orange County Housing Report: It’s THE Right Time

Posted by Hartanov Real Estate Team on Friday, April 26th, 2019 at 11:00am.

Prospective buyers and sellers constantly ask when is it the right time to buy or sell. It is now.

THE Right Time: With low interest rates and a surge in demand, it is a good time for both buyers and sellers to make a move.

When is “the” best time to make a move? For prospective buyers and sellers, the current housing conditions and trends point to NOW. How can it be both an excellent time to buy and sell at the very same time? For buyers, it is all about interest rates. For sellers, it is all about top dollar and cashing in on this year’s consistent, growing demand. 

At the end of 2018, prognosticators, economic experts, and major financial institutions were all forecasting interest rates anywhere from 5.25% to 6% in 2019. That seemed more than reasonable given the fact that rates had climbed from 3.95% at the beginning of 2018 to nearly 5% by November. Yet, after an exceptionally rocky December for Wall Street and news of an economic slowdown in both China and Europe, interest rates retreated and dropped to 4%. Since then, they have risen slightly to about 4.2%, where they stand today. The bottom line, mortgage rates are back down to historical lows. It is a great time to be a buyer. 

These rates could be gone tomorrow if more and more positive economic news hits the presses. The tremendous twist of fate has allowed buyers to afford a lot more home. Affordability improved radically. For a buyer looking for a payment of about $3,000 per month with 20% down, they are now looking at purchasing a home priced at $762,500 with a 4.25% mortgage rate. Compare that to last November when rates were just about 5%; that $3,000 per month payment allowed a buyer to purchase a home at $698,750. The drop in rates has allowed a buyer to purchase $63,750 more home, yet the mortgage payment did not change.

 For sellers, lower rates have pushed the market from a slight Buyer’s Market at the end of 2018 and start to January of this year, to a Balanced Market in February, to a slight Seller’s Market today. Last month, rates dropped nearly a half of a percentage point, dropping from 4.5% to nearly 4%. That plunge resulted in a considerable uptick in demand (prior 30-days of pending sales). In the past two weeks alone, demand increased by 11%, while the active inventory only increased by 1%. As a result, the Expected Market Time (the number of days it would take for a home placed on the market today to open escrow down the road) dropped from 84 to 76 days, the largest drop at this time of year since 2009. This dip is not typical for mid-April.

 Why is it such a great time to sell right now? From here, demand typically rises slowly until peaking by the end of May. With the distractions of graduation and the kids off for summer break, demand starts to slow in June. In the past seven years, from May to August, demand drops, on average, by 10%. At the same time, the inventory increased, on average, by 18%. With falling demand and an increasing supply of homes that sellers are competing against, the Expected Market Time rises. The best time of the year for sellers, with the lowest Expected Market Time, is from February until mid-May. 

For sellers to properly take advantage of the most optimal time to sell, they need to be on the market now and priced right. Currently, there are plenty of homes that are flying off the market with multiple offers, often selling for more than their asking prices. BUT, there are also plenty of homes that are sitting on the market with no interest, or offers to purchase that come in well below the asking price. Accurately pricing a home based upon the condition, location, upgrades, and overall appeal is fundamental in order to find success. Any home that look like the final reveal on one of the many HGTV programs where a fixer-upper is transformed into a dream home, will procure an avalanche of offers in today’s market IF it is priced well. Pricing a home too aggressively will result in very little activity and ultimately will just sit, missing the opportunity to cash in on the best time of the year to sell. 

The bottom line: the best time of the year for buyers and sellers to make a move is right now.

For the COMPLETE REPORT, contact us.

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