Orange County Housing Report: Supply Dilemma

In the past few years, there has been a severe inventory crisis initially instigated by the pandemic and now due to the high mortgage rate environment.

Lack of FOR-SALE Signs

Since the pandemic, there have not been enough homes available, and 2023 is no different.

The pandemic lockdowns began three years ago, in March 2020. Life came to an abrupt halt. Instantly, grocery shelves were ransacked as everyone prepared for an indefinite time in their homes. Many aisles were empty, most notably the toilet paper aisle. There was a run on toilet paper, and it lasted throughout 2020. In desperation, people resorted to shopping for rolls on eBay or Amazon and were willing to pay whatever price. It was simple…

Orange County Housing Report: Rates Pave Path for Housing

It is all about rates in the housing market, from the number of homeowners willing to sell to the volume of buyers able to afford to purchase. 

Mortgage Rates

Not only do rates affect buyers, but they also impact the number of sellers.

Just about everyone loves the beach. Basking in the sun, walking along the coast, listening to the soothing sounds of waves crashing on the shore, and taking a refreshing plunge in the cool, salty water, are some of the many reasons so many head to the beach, especially on the weekend. Yet, what happens when it is overcast and cool during the winter? Not as many Southern Californians make the pilgrimage to the beach. There are still plenty of…

Orange County Housing Report: Housing Starting to Flex

After an extremely slow end to 2022, buyers are returning to the housing arena, demand is already up sharply, and market times are plunging fast.

Buyer Demand Coming Back

Pending sales are surging higher as housing bounces back from very low levels.

Getting to a movie theater early, sitting in the pews of an empty church with plenty of time until the service begins, and being seated immediately at a popular restaurant before the dinner rush are all examples of moments in time where it seems as if very few are going to show up. Yet, in the blink of an eye, the theater is packed, the church pews have been filled, and there is an hour-long waitlist at that favorite restaurant. That is…

Orange County Housing Report: Turning Up the Heat

With all the distractions of the holidays now in the rearview mirror, the housing market is about to heat up as demand soars and market times fall.

 The Winter Market

The Winter Market is characterized by slowly rising supply, surging demand, and a fall in market times.

Climbing into a car during the dead of winter can be brutal. The seats are cold. The steering wheel is cold. Most importantly, the air temperature feels as if it is below ZERO, even in sunny Southern California. Initially, after turning on the heat, frigid air blows through the vents. After driving down the street, the air quickly warms, ending the harsh reality of winter’s chill. Similarly, after hitting its slowest time of…

Orange County Housing Report: Sluggish Intro to 2023

Unlike the insane, incredible hot starts to 2021 and 2022, this year’s start is much different with very little demand, a muted inventory, and pre-pandemic market times.

2023 Start

With very little demand and a subdued inventory, real estate activity will be suppressed as the year gets underway.

Bears do not wake up from hibernation energetic and raring to go. Instead, they are groggy and dazed for two to three weeks and it takes a while for their metabolism to kick in again. That is how housing normally starts after the holidays have finally passed. It takes a few weeks in January for buyers and potential sellers to shake off the holiday fog after enjoying the festive season that is…

Orange County Housing Report: A 2023 Forecast

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!  Now, what does that mean for Orange County real estate? 

First, let us look back at what happened in 2022 in terms of inventory, demand, luxury properties, and the Expected Market Time.

Active Inventory

After starting the year with a record low number of available homes to purchase, the inventory soared higher but is still far below pre-pandemic levels.

The year started off with an active inventory of 954 homes, the lowest level to start a year since tracking began in 2004. The average start prior to the pandemic was 4,500 homes, so there was nearly nothing available in January. Yet, with a rapidly rising mortgage rate environment, demand slowed substantially as the year…

Orange County Housing Report: No Crash in Sight

 Housing data illustrates that there is not a housing crash on the horizon despite the current slowdown and home values falling.

Not the Great Recession

With a very limited inventory of available homes coupled with over a decade of tight lending standards, housing values will not nosedive like they did during the Great Recession. 

An astonishing 41% of Americans think that the housing market is going to crash in the next 12 months, according to a survey conducted by LendingTree. Even more revealing is that 74% of those who believe there will be a crash think it will be as bad or worse than the “2008 housing market collapse.” With so many convinced that a crash is inevitable, does that mean…

Orange County Housing Report: A Holiday Pause

The week of Thanksgiving ushers in the Holiday Market, the slowest time of the year for housing that continues through the first couple of weeks of the New Year.

Holiday Market

During the Holiday Market both the inventory and demand will plunge until ringing in a New Year.

Southern California does not get pummeled by snow during the holidays like the rest of the country. There are no blizzards, school days are not cancelled due to snow, freezing temperatures are rare, and roads are drivable year-round not taking into account construction cones and the grind of holiday traffic. Regardless of the weather, housing slows with all the distractions of the yuletide season. The holidays are here and…

 Orange County Housing Report: Reduce and Net Less

For sellers who must reduce their asking price to achieve a successful outcome, they likely will net less at the closing table.

Price Reductions

Carefully pricing a home allows sellers to walk away with the most money possible and achieve success quickly.

For professional track sprinters, getting out of the starting blocks quickly, fast, and first is often the difference in a race. There is plenty of preparation and training to be that runner that is the fastest off the blocks. The initial lunge is crucial and is an advantage that often propels the athlete with the best start across the finish line with arms raised high in the air.

Similarly, when a home initially comes on the market,…

Housing Haunted by the Fed

As the Federal Reserve pushed harder and harder on the economic brake pedal by increasing the Fed Funds Rate at the fastest pace in recent history, the housing market has slowed to a crawl.

Housing Reset

In June the Federal Reserve announced that they had plans to “reset” the U.S. housing market, and that is precisely what is occurring today.

All year long the Federal Reserve has been in the news. Inflation had become enemy number one and they were going to do everything in their power to tamp down out-of-control inflation. Prices of goods, services, food, and energy were climbing at an unhealthy rate. Home values had soared by over 40% in just two years. Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve Board,…